So here’s how things are looking for the Greek election. They’re at 82% reporting, but most of the remaining votes are around Athens, Piraeus, and Thessalonika - all strong SYRIZA territory. So we can probably expect a slight shift towards SYRIZA, but no more than a seat or two.

I was going to do a big long post on the possibilities for coalitions and so on, but with this seat distribution there are basically just two possibilities:

  1. ND and PASOK continue on as a pro-austerity pro-bailout pro-eurozone coalition with the bare minimum number of seats until someone defects and the coalition collapses.
  2. A fresh round of elections gets called for next month.

There really aren’t any other feasible governing prospects here. Honestly I’m expecting #2, because a “grand coalition” style government that received just under a third of the total vote (and around a quarter of the total vote in the capital) would be perceived as having very little legitimacy and almost certainly would not last.

(via soupsoup)